AGI in 7 years

predicting the impossible

I am passionate about reasoning from first principles. Doing so, more often than not, allows us to formulate accurate predictions without an excessive expenditure of cognitive effort.

So, let me offer a prediction: I am 80% certain that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will become a reality within the next seven years.

My rationale is as uncomplicated as it is compelling: Our world is full of audacious dreamers or "moonshoters" as I like to call them. As one myself, I have the privilege of interacting with at least five such innovators every week through my podcast.

We, as moonshoters, are unafraid to tackle monumental challenges with relentless determination. Take my quest, for example: I am committed to unraveling the secrets of eternal lifespan, even if it means devoting my life to it. This mission is primarily a personal pursuit, but in a capitalist society, the fruits of such endeavors inevitably benefit the masses. It's an inherent characteristic of our social nature; we share what we discover.

Increasingly, I believe the key to unlocking longevity lies in leveraging AGI for extensive in silico experiments. Consequently, I am planning to fully immerse myself in AI research within the next 6-12 months.

But I'm not alone in this endeavor. There are countless other talented, driven individuals who are also pouring their energy into AI. It's a potent, synergistic mix that compounds over time; brilliant minds working with other brilliant minds in a spirit of collaboration.

Consider the remarkable achievements of a lone brilliant mind such as Einstein. Now, imagine what 8000 moonshoters, which represents a mere 0.00001% of our 8 billion global population, can achieve when they devote their full time and energy to AI. This represents a formidable force that can break down even the most seemingly insurmountable barriers. While I acknowledge there are other contributing factors like technological advancements and Moore's Law, I believe the collaborative efforts of intelligent individuals are the most potent catalyst for change.

Yet, collaboration isn't always a straightforward endeavor due to egoistic inclinations. As part of my contribution to this field, beyond my personal research, I aim to foster unity among AI enthusiasts through free (and occasionally paid) think tanks. Feel free to reach out if you're interested in an invitation to my AI Wisdom Mastermind group.

This post was edited by GPT as my brain wasn’t fully caf’d. Thanks partner.